Recently, I wrote about the reasons for the altcoin pumping due to the decrease in Bitcoin transaction volume and the decrease in dominance.
I won't say which position is advantageous. We also do not include projections and forecasts.
As it is as of 01, 04, 2022, there may be slight errors as the data is updated (cold wallet has been added).
Also, since it was written as a comprehensive average, there may be subtle errors.
It is simply a report on the cause of the recent decrease in Bitcoin trading volume.
It's probably something that many people don't know. I found out after researching and analyzing.
Feel free to share.
In fact, I also thought that the recent trading volume was strangely low.
However, after analyzing it, the current situation is more serious than expected.
The material I'm going to show you is at the bottom of the description. Even if you do not know the terminology, you can understand it, so I think it will be of great help if you refer to it.
You can just read the text. As it is a community, I did not write a formal report. I wrote it as easily as possible, so you can refer to it.
1. Total Bitcoin Issuance, Mining, and Distribution
Current total number and issuance of Bitcoin. There are many issuances, but as the mining difficulty increases, the amount of coins mined is maintained on average, so there is no problem.
1-1 miners
There is no problem with the current issuance and mining, but the circulation from miners to exchanges or Defi banks is not going smoothly.
This is the lowest level since the release in February.
Even when the price of Bitcoin rises, it does not circulate As it went down, it did not circulate despite incurring miner losses.
Rather, the total holdings increased.
1-2 exchanges
As the number of outstanding contracts increases, there is a reason for the decrease in holdings at all current exchanges, but the supply is not being done smoothly due to the above supply problem.
When the amount of coins held by the exchange is calculated as the average value, the amount of coins entering the exchange is smaller than the amount of Bitcoin in circulation.
1-3 Defi Bank
The amount of withdrawals and deposits is known, but the total amount of BTC held by Defi Bank is unknown.
From June to the present, the deposit amount is very high on average, but the withdrawal amount is small enough to be considered non-existent.
1-4 Funds
Since January 21st, the holdings of institutions such as Funds and ETFs have exploded. (I think it is related to the cause of the explosive price increase.)
This period is the same as when miners release their quantity to the market. It appears to have gone into a house.
The reason for the sharp decrease in the number of ETC GRUOP BITCOIN ETF holdings at the top is presumed to be mass selling as the option expiration approaches.
The holdings of the PURPOSE BITCOIN ETF are gradually increasing. I think this may be the cause of the current price defense.
Currently, other institutions appear to be holding.
I think it might be one of the reasons for the decrease in trading volume seen on the exchange. Although the price has risen again since July, I think the reason why the trading volume is low is that over-the-counter derivatives (Fund, Etf, etc.) trading have been very active.
1-5 Long term holders and short term holders
Short term holders are on average steady, but
Long-term holders have declined significantly.
2. Problems of supply and distribution
As miners circulate a large amount in the market, there was a lot of demand from Funds, ETFs, and Defi banks, and it seems that all of them are currently being held.
The problem is that there is no stock on the market.
As soon as the miners release their supply, I think that institutional investors and Defi Bank have accumulated a lot of it.
As a result, there was an explosive price increase, which is the same reason why the volume was not released on the exchanges such as Buy XX, Up xx, and Who xx.
It is speculated that the current volume on the exchange will be equal to or slightly higher than before the Bitcoin pumping.
(It is presumed that all the quantity distributed by miners was withdrawn over the counter.)
Currently, except for one ETF product, other institutions are holding, and some institutions appear to be accumulating.
But in the end, if there is no supply in the market, Bitcoin pumping like before (2020-April 2021) cannot be done.
Also, even if the stock is released, it will not be done unless the institution has the will to buy.
As a result, miners also appear to be holding and not circulating on the market.
3. Aftermath
Compared to the past, the interest of individual investors seems to have decreased significantly.
The movement of whales (whale also refers to individual investors, but also refers to a relatively weak group.
I think it's a pumping factor for some altcoins.
4. Final Conclusion
Bitcoin pumping after January 2021 is the circulation of miners and accumulation by institutions. Securing supply from Defi Bank. I think it is the result of the interest of individual investors.
The resulting trading volume is reflected in the chart.
Defi banks and Etf products distributed by miners are going out of the market.
I think it is natural for the trading volume to decrease because there is no volume in the market. I believe that the current low participation rate of institutional investors is also the cause. (It is an over-the-counter product because it is difficult to secure a quantity.)
Overall, the participation of institutional investors has increased significantly.
However, it is not known whether additional supplies will be secured.
It is judged that the price drop and open contracts are acting as a complex factor.
Likewise, there is no volume (BTC) in the market.
The fact that altcoins are pumped in limited quantities in the market is also the cause of the decline in dominance.
However, considering the current macroeconomic complex, it is judged that the current institutional investors' attention is focused on the stock market.
