Currently, Bitcoin trading is clearly dominated by the futures market.
The trading volume of the futures market overwhelms the spot by more than 2 or 3 times.
Therefore, power struggles between whales, forces, and institutions often occur.
In July of last year, a huge short position was liquidated.
A case in which a position worth approximately 300 billion won was liquidated due to a sniper on the other side
In this way, we can understand the power struggle
If you look at the current status of Binance's pending contracts,
A very large position has been maintained since entering around November 21st.
The part where the unconsolidated part at the bottom rises tremendously is around November 21st.
This is the basis for entering a long position
Also, in the event of a huge downtrend so far, Binance Bitcoin Futures funding costs should remain negative.
Currently positive.
thus
1. Funding fee is positive
2. In this situation, there is no short squeeze or long squeeze, and the number of non-contracting contracts rises steadily.
It is said that a long position in the clearing district between 30 and 32K in Gyeongguk is worth hundreds of billions of won.
If you sniper this position, there is a high possibility that it will plunge to about 18-25K with a big short in an instant.
Ultimately, the predicted shape of Bitcoin is
It seems to go like this
Eventually, in the next few years, it will enter a cooling phase, and the picture will appear upward.
But now the downtrend will give a rebound once in a while
Around that low point, it will be divided into about 18~25K vs 32K.
Let's summarize the scenario
1. Hundreds of billions of won long positions around 30~32K are in danger of liquidation
2. This whale will rebound with margin to save the long position
3. However, the opposing force will also snipe through dumping.
Big short short term 18~25K vs 30~32K
You can see the short term trough in between.
The rebound is up to about 42K.
